Safety2h ago
Safety
Compute Reductions Slow AGI Takeoff Sixfold
A 10x reduction in R&D compute slows AGI takeoff by roughly 6x in the median case. This estimate includes compute for experiments, researcher agents, and final training runs. The 80% confidence interval ranges from 3.5x to 8x. These findings suggest compute caps offer a predictable lever for slowing rapid capabilities growth.