Research
46d agoApple Finds LLMs Fail Bayesian Belief Updates
Researchers at Apple discovered that LLMs consistently deviate from Bayes' rule when updating probabilistic beliefs based on new evidence. The team measured this "information processing gap" across multiple models. These internal inconsistencies hinder rational decision-making in high-stakes fields.
The Signal
Practitioners should avoid relying on LLMs for precise probabilistic reasoning in medicine or law.